Brilliant analysis of how tariffs can bacfire strategically. The data on China's $1.6 trillion pivot to the Global South really underscores something: once supply chains adapt, they dont just revert back. I saw this firsthand when a client's manufacturing partner diversified after 2018 and never came back to the U.S. market even when it made sense financially.
What's particularly striking is the strategic asymmetry this creates. Washington assumes tariffs pressure Beijing by shrinking market access, but if Chinese firms successfully substitute toward ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, the leverage inverts the U.S. risks becoming less relevant to global supply chains rather than more central to them. The $1.6T figure signals that adaptation has moved from tactical hedging to structural reorientation.
I would argue you are correct, the move is a structural reorientation. Trump's goal was to permanently weaken the US. He has succeeded. Is the next step to divide it into 3 or 4 weak nations that take the US out of the game completely?
It may be seen as a weakening but to me it appears as a strategic withdrawal. Closing the border, weakening the dollar, threatening alliances seems counterproductive but I believe there is a larger game at play that will see the US far more powerful than before well the elites at least.
Generally, people don't make changes even when it's in their best interest unless forced to do so. Companies (run by people) were forced out of the US. What will "force" them back?
What will force companies back? Energy and the promise of world class infrastructure which the project Genesis combined with data centers and nuclear energy is
Also, the trust issue to overcome. Even if two or three US administrations attempt to repair the damage, all nations now know the US could choose the fascist route again.
Brilliant analysis of how tariffs can bacfire strategically. The data on China's $1.6 trillion pivot to the Global South really underscores something: once supply chains adapt, they dont just revert back. I saw this firsthand when a client's manufacturing partner diversified after 2018 and never came back to the U.S. market even when it made sense financially.
What's particularly striking is the strategic asymmetry this creates. Washington assumes tariffs pressure Beijing by shrinking market access, but if Chinese firms successfully substitute toward ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, the leverage inverts the U.S. risks becoming less relevant to global supply chains rather than more central to them. The $1.6T figure signals that adaptation has moved from tactical hedging to structural reorientation.
I would argue you are correct, the move is a structural reorientation. Trump's goal was to permanently weaken the US. He has succeeded. Is the next step to divide it into 3 or 4 weak nations that take the US out of the game completely?
It may be seen as a weakening but to me it appears as a strategic withdrawal. Closing the border, weakening the dollar, threatening alliances seems counterproductive but I believe there is a larger game at play that will see the US far more powerful than before well the elites at least.
How do you see this coming to frution: a larger game at play that will see the US far more powerful than before
Generally, people don't make changes even when it's in their best interest unless forced to do so. Companies (run by people) were forced out of the US. What will "force" them back?
What will force companies back? Energy and the promise of world class infrastructure which the project Genesis combined with data centers and nuclear energy is
Also, the trust issue to overcome. Even if two or three US administrations attempt to repair the damage, all nations now know the US could choose the fascist route again.