Republicans hold the U.S. Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, because if there is a tie vote, Vice President JD Vance is the tie-breaker. Vance will side with the Republicans regardless of the issue.
Republicans have held both Texas Senate seats for decades. A Democratic victory in Texas would give Democrats another path to a Senate majority.
The Senate:
Confirms or rejects judges, cabinet secretaries, and ambassadors.
Approves or blocks treaties.
Controls committees and subpoenas.
Tries federal impeachments.
Trump’s allies around the world like Putin, Netanyahu, and Lukashenko will see the result on 3 November as a measure of how long the Trump-Republican program lasts.
Texas chooses between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Paxton is the state attorney general. The Texas House, controlled by his own party, impeached him on 27 May 2023 by a vote of 121 to 23. The Texas Senate acquitted him on 16 September 2023. None of the 16 articles considered received the 21 votes needed for conviction. Talarico is a state representative and a student at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary. Three polls released in October 2026 (Fox News, Texas Public Opinion Research, Texas Southern University) put Talarico ahead by five points or fewer.
Texas is two cultures, and each votes based on their cultural perspectives. The metro corridor (Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio) votes one way. Rural and exurban Texas votes the other way. Three main cultural dimensions describe the difference.
Honor vs. Dignity (Leung and Cohen). In a Dignity culture, worth is internal; people don’t take insults personally, so disputes go to court, and verdicts are accepted. In an Honor culture, worth depends on one’s reputation, so people must respond personally to an attack. The metro corridor is a Dignity culture. Rural Texas is an Honor culture.
The impeachment is the test. Metro voters see the institutions dealing with the issue. Rural voters see Austin politicians attacking one of their own, and Paxton answered by running for higher office. He did not accept the institutional verdict. He fought back because he sees it as an attack on his honor, regardless of the 121 to 23 House vote against him.
Universalism vs. Particularism (Trompenaars). In a Universalist culture, the rule is the rule; people apply it the same way to everyone, so a candidate’s record decides the vote. In a Particularist culture, the rule depends on who is involved; people apply it differently to their own side, so the candidate’s relationships decide the vote. The metro corridor is a Universalist culture. Rural Texas is a Particularist culture.
Trump’s endorsement is the test. Metro voters see an impeached attorney general with a felony indictment and ask why the rules don’t apply to him. Rural voters see Trump’s endorsement on 19 May 2026 as a reason to support Paxton and more important than the rule of law. Colin Allred ran on the rule in 2024: accountability, moderation, abortion rights. He lost to Ted Cruz by 8.5 points and won 19 of 254 counties. Relationship win in rural Texas.
Traditional vs. Secular-Rational (Inglehart and Welzel). In a Traditional culture, life is organized around religion, family, and obedience to authority, so voters trust the candidate who prays with them. In a Secular-Rational culture, life is organized around science, evidence, and personal choice, so voters trust the candidate who debates with them. The metro corridor is a Secular-Rational culture. Rural Texas is a Traditional culture.
Religion is the test. The last three Democratic nominees, Beto O’Rourke in 2018, MJ Hegar in 2020, and Allred in 2024, were Secular-Rational candidates asking a Traditional state to vote on policy. All three lost. Talarico is different. He is studying to be a Presbyterian minister. He compared his campaign to the biblical David. He campaigns in rural counties. Paxton opens every event with the Pledge of Allegiance, the Texas Pledge, and a prayer. For the first time, both candidates compete for the Traditional vote.
Most likely winner: It is a close call, but the culture is closer to Paxton. Talarico changed one dimension. Paxton still holds two. In 2018, Cruz took 73 percent of the vote in Texas’s 172 rural counties while O’Rourke won the big cities and lost by 2.6 points. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate race since 1988. In 2024, the final polling average put Cruz ahead by approximately 4 points. He won by 8.5 points, showing that polls underestimated his support. Honor cultures show up to answer an attack. Talarico’s seminary training closes the gap. It does not close it enough.
Wednesday: Kansas. Friday: Ohio. Saturday (paid): Michigan and Maine, plus the full Senate count after 3 November.
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