The winner of the Kansas Senate seat is clearer than you think, and much clearer than the polls suggest.
Roger Marshall, the Republican senator, was booed by the crowd at the State Fair debate in September after he filed more than 700 lawsuits against patients who couldn’t pay their medical bills.
His campaign then ran an ad accusing Adam Hamilton of protecting a pedophile and illustrated it with photos of two businesses that had nothing to do with the story.
Then a cookie shop went viral, claiming his campaign hadn’t paid its invoice in six years. The campaign paid it.
Trump is flying to Wichita to rescue him — he can’t.
Trump can’t save Marshall in part because Adam Hamilton, the Democrat:
spent 35 years as senior pastor of the Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, the largest United Methodist congregation in the country.
He is a fifth-generation Kansan.
He told a rally, “If you voted for the president, you also have a place in my campaign.”
Two former Republican governors, more than 100 Republican officeholders, and Marshall’s own primary opponent have endorsed Hamilton.
No Democrat has won a Kansas Senate seat since 1932. Trump carried the state by 16 points in 2024. October polls show a tie or Hamilton ahead by 1 to 3 points.
Here’s the real reason Hamilton wins.
Kansas does not like surprises
Sam Brownback, a former Republican governor, found out the hard way. His 2012 tax cuts were supposed to pay for themselves. Surprise! Kansas suffered serious budget shortfalls. In 2017, the Republican legislature reversed most of the tax cuts, overriding Brownback’s veto. In 2018, Kansans elected Democrat Laura Kelly, who promised to reverse the tax cuts and fix the budget.
Four years later, the Republican legislature tested Kansans again. It put an amendment on the ballot to strip abortion rights from the state constitution. Voters said no, 59 to 41, including 14 counties Trump had won two years earlier.
Kansans do not vote for a party. Kansans vote for the candidate who keeps things working.
Marshall knows this better than anyone. In 2020, he beat Barbara Bollier by 11 points by convincing voters she was the gamble. This year he is the gamble:
Tariffs on wheat and sorghum.
A war in Iran. Diesel prices.
ICE raids on Kansas farms.
A beef-import waiver that undercut Kansas ranchers.
Rural hospitals losing funding.
Every one of them came from Trump, and Marshall voted with Trump on every one.
Kansas calls this common sense. Cultural theorist Hofstede calls it Uncertainty Avoidance. The outcome is the same regardless of the name.
Kansas doesn’t like rude people
Kris Kobach found this out in 2018, running for governor as the “full-throttle conservative” and losing to a woman whose entire message was “let’s calm down and fix the budget.”
Marshall calls Hamilton “the most radical liberal person that ever got through a primary in the state of Kansas.” Former Governor Bill Graves, a Republican, endorsed Hamilton for his “kindness, humility and service to others.” One of those two men sounds like a Kansan. The other got booed off the stage at the State Fair for defending those lawsuits.
The GLOBE study calls this low Assertiveness. Kansans call it politeness.
They want modesty and tact, and they push back on a candidate who attacks, whether the target is an opponent or a patient.
Kansans apply the same standard to everyone.
In most states, a Republican voter will forgive a Republican candidate almost anything as long as he beats the Democrat.
Not in Kansas.
In 2020, 71 percent of Osage County voted for Trump. Two years later, 56 percent of the same county voted against the abortion amendment the Republican legislature had written.
This year, two former Republican governors, Bill Graves and Mike Hayden, endorsed the Democrat. So did Arch Naramore, who ran against Marshall in the Republican primary and won 20 percent of the vote.
In Kansas, Republican voters listen to a Republican candidate because they are Republican, but they vote based on what they have done.
Trompenaars calls this Universalism; the rules and standards apply equally to everyone. Kansans call it fairness.
One warning. The Democrat in 2022 was also a Methodist pastor, and Jerry Moran beat him by 23 points. The pulpit alone doesn’t guarantee success in Kansas but it is the icing on the cake for Hamilton.
What wins is all three cultural perspectives pointing the same direction at the same time, and this year they do. Marshall is the reckless candidate, the rude candidate, and the unfair candidate, and his own party is abandoning him.
Kansas has a word for a Republican like that — former.
Friday’s Edition: Ohio.
Saturday’s Edition (paid): Michigan and Maine, plus the full Senate count after 3 November.
If you enjoyed this article, help support my work by becoming a paid subscriber or “Buy me a coffee.”
Get a solid understanding of Trompenaars’ cultural dimensions by purchasing the guide or subscribing to Cultural Perspective (free or paid) and receiving the guide for free.
