WHO GETS TO BE ONE OF US? WHAT CAUSES SOCIETIES TO SHIFT. THURSDAY’S EDITION
Civic nationalism or ethnic nationalism - Series 13 #4
Tuesday examined civic nationalism. Wednesday examined race nationalism. Today we examine what causes societies to shift from one to another. Four forces push societies between models: economic stress, migration levels, trust in institutions, and external threats.
When there is little economic stress, when jobs are plentiful, wages rise, and people see their children doing better than they did, civic nationalism holds. Newcomers are competitors, but the pie grows fast enough that competition feels manageable. When jobs disappear, wages stagnate, and people see their children doing worse, the calculus changes. Newcomers become threats. Why should someone who just arrived get a job when my son cannot find one? Why should my taxes pay for services used by people who were not born here? Economic decline breaks the deal. You followed the rules, paid taxes, obeyed the laws, and still cannot find a job or afford a house. If following the rules no longer delivers results, people look for other ways to determine who deserves part of a shrinking pie.
When migration levels are minimal, newcomers can integrate without disrupting cultural patterns. But large numbers of immigrants change neighborhoods, schools, workplaces, and public spaces faster than existing residents can adapt. Germany absorbed guest workers from Turkey for decades with manageable friction. When over one million Milddle Eastern refugees arrived within a short time in 2015, the system buckled. Housing markets tightened, school systems strained, and neighborhoods transformed within months. The racist Alternative for Germany party went from marginal to a major opposition party. The pace of change matters as much as the total number.
Civic nationalism requires trust in institutions; people need to believe that rules apply equally, that courts deliver justice, that police protect everyone, and that government serves the public rather than insiders. When trust diminishes, civic nationalism loses its foundation. If the courts favor the connected, if police protect some neighborhoods but not others, if government serves donors rather than voters, then following the rules becomes foolish. People fall back on ethnicity, their community, and personal networks because those are the only systems they can trust.
External threats such as war, terrorism, and hostile neighbors make populations ask who can be trusted. After the September 11 attacks, American attitudes toward Muslim immigrants hardened overnight. After Russia invaded Ukraine, European attitudes toward Russian residents shifted. External threats shrink the circle of trust. People who seemed like neighbors yesterday become potential enemies today.
These four forces rarely operate alone. Economic stress plus high migration creates combustible conditions. Low institutional trust plus external threats accelerates the shift. The United States currently faces all four: economic mobility has declined for decades, migration has increased significantly, trust in government has collapsed from over 70% in the 1960s to under 20% today, and perceived threats from terrorism and geopolitical rivals have heightened. The shift from civic to ethnic nationalism is in rapid progress.
Hornby’s framework helps explain why some people drive these shifts, and others resist. The Blue Guardian archetype insists on preserving tradition and is threatened when change occurs. Economic stress, migration, institutional decay, and external threats all signal to Blue that the old order is collapsing. Blue responds by demanding restoration of ‘the good old days’, and exclusion of those who do not fit their definition of citizens. The East Communicator archetype thrives by networking across groups through explicit rules and builds relationships, assuming the rules will remain the same. When the rules change, the East’s networks become liabilities rather than assets.
Explore Hornby’s Archetypes
Societies do not choose nationalism models from a menu. Material conditions and cultural perspectives push them toward one or the other. When economies deliver, institutions function, migration stays manageable, and external threats are not imminent, civic nationalism works. When any of these conditions deteriorate, populations drift toward ethnic nationalism. When all four deteriorate together, the shift accelerates.
Friday: How these forces are reshaping nations around the world.
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