What’s the Fed decision in September?
Before I answer, I want to explain the mechanism behind my prediction so you can agree or disagree with my assessment.
Kalshi’s prediction market contract on the Fed decision is trading at:
A hike of 25 bps at 55%
Fed maintains the rate at 43%
A hike of more than 25 bps at 1%
The world invests in the U.S. economy largely because of “independence within government,” a system that separates monetary policy from politics. It is designed so decisions serve the economy, not a political party, but it doesn’t always work that way.
