What is Russia? What Will Putin Do?
Russia is at stage five of its seven-stage cycle. Putin is 73. He has not named a successor. He is losing the war in Ukraine. Russian forces are taking more casualties each month than the army can recruit replacements. The economy is under heavy strain. The strong hand is weakening.
The historical pattern
The Russian historical cycle has seven stages.
Chaos, called the smuta or “time of troubles,” breaks the system.
A strong hand, the silnaya ruka, emerges.
That leader restores order, often through force.
The country expands outward to build buffer territory against outside threats.
The strong hand weakens through age, defeat, succession failure, or economic strain.
A short reform period either fails or speeds the unraveling.
The system collapses back into chaos.
