Wednesday Edition: The Ottoman Empire, The Empire That Stopped Moving
What Makes Empires Fall?
The Ottoman Empire lasted more than six hundred years. It controlled territory from North Africa to the Middle East and deep into Europe. Its fall was not sudden. It happened because the state stopped fixing what was breaking. Institutions weakened, the economy stalled, and the military fell behind its rivals. By the time collapse arrived in the early twentieth century, the empire no longer had the money, the technology, or the unity to survive.
This should sound the alarm for the U.S., which is rapidly running out of room to print more money, has lost its lead to China and other nations in key technologies such as 5G, AI, EVs, green tech, and manufacturing, and is no longer united.
Stagnation and Failure to Reform
For centuries, the Ottoman government ran on a strong central system. That system worked as long as the empire kept expanding and collecting new revenue. When expansion slowed, the government needed to modernize its army, its administration, and its economy. It did not.
Britain, the United States, and Germany adopted the Industrial Revolution and built factories, railways, and modern weapons, but the Ottomans did not industrialize at the same pace. While the European powers rebuilt their armies with new weapons, the Ottomans kept older equipment and older training methods. Schools in Europe taught engineering and science. Ottoman schools focused on religion and law. Bureaucrats kept manual systems long after other empires adopted modern recordkeeping.
The empire fell behind because leaders refused to change the way the state worked. The result was predictable. Each year, the empire relied more on loans, foreign expertise, and outdated tools.
The United States is falling into a similar trap. China and the European Union are switching to green energy. The American government is doubling down on fossil fuels and attempting to revive the coal industry. Nations are shifting to electric vehicles, while the United States keeps a transportation system built around combustion engines. The most successful nations operate under modern social democracies and meritocracies, while the United States relies on a government framework written in the 1700s.
Corruption and Administrative Decay
The Ottoman tax system broke down in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Tax collectors bought the right to collect taxes and kept a large portion for themselves. Rural communities lost trust in the state, and more money disappeared into private hands.
Government positions often went to those with connections rather than those with skill. This created a civil service that lacked training and competence. Important duties, such as military supply and infrastructure repairs, suffered. When roads needed rebuilding or ports needed upgrades, years passed before anything happened. Trade slowed, and provincial regions grew more independent because they no longer relied on the central government for support.
Under the Trump-Republican administration in the United States government, roles are given to political loyalists who lack training and competence. Agencies lose skilled staff because pay, stability, and professional standards keep eroding. Basic tasks, such as maintaining bridges, updating power grids, and modernizing airports, are repeatedly delayed because Congress cannot pass long-term plans. As infrastructure ages and breaks, states and cities begin acting on their own because they cannot depend on Washington to deliver. The result is a government that struggles to perform its core duties, just as the Ottoman system did in its final century.
Economic Weakness
The empire could not compete with European industrial production. Manufactured goods from Britain and France entered Ottoman markets and undercut local producers. Ottoman factories could not match the prices or quality. As local industries collapsed, the empire lost jobs, revenue, and technical skill.
To cover the growing financial gap, the government borrowed heavily from European banks. By the late 1800s, the empire could no longer pay its debts on time. Foreign creditors created the Ottoman Public Debt Administration, which took control of parts of the empire’s budget. A major empire now needed outside supervision just to manage its own finances.
The United States is beginning to repeat this pattern. China, Europe, and South Korea manufacture goods more efficiently and at lower cost. The U.S. borrows more each year, adding trillions to a national debt it cannot reduce. Investors and rating agencies are beginning to hedge against the U.S.
Military Decline
For centuries, the Janissaries formed one of the strongest armies in the world. By the 1800s, they became a political force that blocked reform and resisted modern training. When the sultan tried to replace them with a modern army, the Janissaries revolted. The empire finally removed them by force, but the delay left the army unprepared for modern warfare.
By the early 1900s, the Ottoman military could not keep pace with European powers. Poor equipment, weak supply chains, and low morale made defeat almost certain. Losses in the Balkans and North Africa showed that the empire no longer had the strength to defend its borders.
Loss of Unity
Different regions of the empire began to act in their own interests. Greeks, Arabs, Armenians, Serbs, and Bulgarians pushed for independence. The government did not respond with reforms. It responded with repression. That increased anger and made cooperation impossible.
Without unity, the empire could not collect reliable taxes, manage a consistent army, or support a single national plan. By the First World War, the empire was a patchwork of regions with their own goals and their own loyalties.
In the United States, states now pursue their own agendas on immigration, education, public health, and voting systems because they no longer trust the federal government to act competently or fairly. Political violence, regional identity movements, and deep ideological divides weaken national unity
The Ottoman Empire collapsed because it stopped adapting. It did not modernize its schools, its army, or its administration. It allowed corruption to replace skill. It borrowed money instead of fixing its economy.
The United States is in a similar position today.
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