The Future Brief: The Core and the Periphery Theory

Why nations are not, never were, and never will be equal.

Sep 15, 2025

The global economy isn’t random. But it’s not exactly manmade either. It seems to follow a consistent structure that nations work within. Similar to how a forest organizes itself:

Tall trees claim the resources -sunlight.
Smaller plants survive in their shadow, supplying resources - decaying material.
In between shrubs and smaller trees struggle to grow.

No one designed it, and while the pattern repeats, each type of forest operates differently within the pattern.

So it is with nations and the global economy

For five centuries, the world has been organized into core nations that set the rules, periphery nations that supply resources and labor, and a semi-periphery that buffer the two

The Historical Pattern

1500s–1700s
Spain, Portugal, later Britain, France, and the Netherlands established colonial empires, the first global core, by dominating sea routes, trade, and military power.

Periphery Nations in the Americas, Africa, and Asia were stripped of resources and labor. The Americas provided silver, sugar, and cotton. West Africa supplied enslaved labor. India and Southeast Asia became sources of spices, textiles, and cash crops.

Semi-Periphery (Buffer States) such as the Ottoman Empire, Mughal India, and China operated independently. They were not fully colonized but lost influence over time.

The wealth extracted from periphery territories financed Europe’s rise, creating systems of control that still constrain many nations today.

1800s - 1900s
The Industrial Revolution accelerated core national power. Britain led the core nations with industrialization, followed by France, Germany, and later the U.S. and Japan. The periphery nations in Latin America, Africa, and South Asia supplied raw materials to the core nations. The core nations produced manufactured goods to sell to periphery nations and used gunboat diplomacy and colonial rule to enforce this imbalance.

Semi-periphery nations, such as Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, were partially industrialized but remained politically unstable. Japan begins its rise after the Meiji Restoration (1868), climbing toward core status.

1945 - 2000s
World War II destroyed Europe’s infrastructure, leaving the United States as the dominant core power.

The US and its allies, Western Europe and Japan, form the foundation of a new, rules-based global economy. Much of Africa, Asia, and Latin America remained periphery nations supplying resources. They were politically free but economically dependent.

The Soviet Union and its satellite states became Semi-Periphery Nations and created an alternative industrial bloc to the US-led capitalist core.

Countries like Brazil, India, and South Korea began the early stages of industrialization, positioning themselves as semi-peripheral nations.

To secure its dominance, the US and allies established the Bretton Woods institutions:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize currencies and enforce fiscal discipline on periphery nations.
The World Bank to fund development projects aligned with the core nation’s interests.
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) to ensure trade benefits the core nations.

The postwar order institutionalized Western dominance, making the US dollar the reserve currency and embedding core interests into every layer of global trade and finance.

2000s – Present

China rises as a semi-periphery challenger, using rapid industrialization and state-led planning to close the gap with core nations. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and leadership within BRICS, China is establishing alternative trade routes, financial systems, and infrastructure networks outside US-controlled institutions.

Other semi-periphery nations are gaining power. India is scaling its digital economy and manufacturing base, positioning itself as a rival to both China and the West. Brazil leverages agricultural dominance and regional diplomacy to gain influence in South America and the Global South. South Africa emerges as a continental leader, bridging African resource wealth with global markets.

Periphery nations, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, have gained new opportunities for development but face intense competition for influence between the Western core and BRICS powers. For example, Kenya and Ethiopia receive BRI infrastructure investments. Resource-rich nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia are courted for strategic minerals needed for green technologies.

2020s: The Rise of a Multi-Core System

BRICS has expanded beyond its original five members to include the oil-rich states Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with countries such as Egypt and Ethiopia. This expansion gives BRICS control over energy resources, shipping routes, and critical raw materials, making it the first credible alternative to Western-led globalization since WWII.

Western core nations the US, EU, and Japan, continue to dominate legacy institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and SWIFT financial network. But emerging core nations, BRICS, are creating their own parallel systems, such as the New Development Bank and alternative payment platforms to bypass the U.S. dollar.

Semi-periphery nations India, Brazil, and others, are pivotal swing states, leveraging ties with both blocs to maximize their autonomy and influence.

African and Latin American nations are gaining bargaining power as they play the blocs against each other, but risk becoming battlegrounds for proxy competition, mirroring earlier colonial struggles.

For the first time since the mid-20th century, the world is no longer organized under a single, uncontested core. Now, multiple centers of power compete for trade, finance, and technology, creating an uneasy equilibrium that will either stabilize into a new order or collapse into fragmentation.

What’s Next

The Western core will remain powerful but increasingly reactive, defending its institutions rather than expanding them. At the same time, the BRICS core will grow by offering alternatives, new trade routes, development banks, and payment systems that bypass the dollar.

The semi-peripheral countries like Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Korea will gain leverage by playing both sides. Their choices will determine whether the world stabilizes into cooperative blocs or fractures into rivalry.

The peripheries, resource-rich nations in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, will experience intense competition for influence, similar to colonial struggles but fought through infrastructure, debt, and digital control instead of direct conquest. Some will climb into semi-periphery status by industrializing and diversifying; others may remain trapped in dependency.

Those most likely to move up:

Vietnam
Indonesia
Nigeria
Mexico
Brazil

Other potential but less likely candidates are:

Ethiopia
Kenya
Argentina
Egypt

The Most Likely Outcome
The world is heading toward a multi-core equilibrium, not a single new hegemon.
Instead of one dominant power, we’ll see competing systems coexisting uneasily. Trade will fragment, finance will split into rival networks, and nations will have to navigate two sets of rules, forcing businesses, governments, and individuals to choose sides.

Ethiopia’s recent entry into BRICS is a case study of a resource-rich nation trying to move up to the semi-periphery. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sees BRICS as a path to industrialization and economic diversification, a move straight out of Samir Amin’s playbook. This week’s Global Profile examines how his leadership will determine Ethiopia’s place.

Cultural Perspective

Cores are built on economics, power, and cultural perspectives.
Each core is made up of many nations with their own cultures, but nations within each core have common cultural traits. This results in each core having collectively different cultural perspectives.

Key Differences

The Western core sees order as something engineered through universal rules, while the BRICS core sees order as emerging from relationships and context.
As these two worldviews collide, nations caught between them, semi-peripheries like Turkey, Indonesia, and Mexico, must navigate two incompatible systems, deciding which logic to follow in each situation.

Why It Matters

The global system you live in is about to split.
This isn’t abstract geopolitics; it will change what you pay, how you work, and the choices you make every day.

The Risks

Higher Costs
Rival trade blocs mean duplicate supply chains and tariffs.
Food, gas, and electronics could swing in price or disappear from shelves depending on which bloc controls resources.
Job Disruption
Industries tied to global markets will split or shrink.
Manufacturing, tech, and finance jobs could vanish overnight as companies are forced to “pick sides.”
Financial Instability
If BRICS bypasses the US dollar, mortgage rates, retirement accounts, and paychecks could lose value quickly.

The Opportunities

Local Growth
Shorter supply chains will create new jobs and businesses at home, from high-tech manufacturing to local food production.
More Options
Competing systems mean more ways to move money, trade, and access technology, breaking old monopolies.
Innovation Through Rivalry
Like the space race, bloc competition could accelerate breakthroughs in green energy, digital tools, and medicine.

Bottom Line:
The shift to a multi-core world will be messy and expensive at first, but it will also open new paths for those ready to adapt.

Your future depends on how you navigate competing systems and position yourself as the rules of the global economy are rewritten.

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