The Future Brief - Global Patterns and What’s Next
NATO’s New Spine: Europe Builds Its Own Shield.
NATO is no longer just a US-led security club; it’s becoming a robust, multipolar defense alliance with Europe at its core. And the European core will only get stronger.
THE NEWS
📰 Germany Commits to NATO’s Eastern Front
This week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stood on Lithuanian soil and declared that “protecting Vilnius is protecting Berlin.” The message: Germany’s military will now be permanently stationed in Lithuania as part of NATO’s new armored brigade.
It’s the first time in modern history that Germany will permanently garrison troops abroad: 4,800 soldiers and 2,000 vehicles, including tanks, by 2027. This move isn’t just military; it’s strategic, political, and cultural: Europe is no longer waiting for the U.S.
📎 Reuters, May 22, 2025
THE PATTERN
What began as American nagging under Trump has morphed into a lasting, systemic shift in NATO’s structure, funding, and mindset:
Spending Up Sharply—and Spreading
In 2016, only five allies met the 2% of GDP defense spending target. As of 2024, 18 have crossed the threshold, and NATO expects 22 of its 32 members to meet it this year. Total European and Canadian defense spending has surged by $600 billion since 2014. In 2024 alone, it jumped 20%, reaching $485 billion (NATO; Reuters).Modern Kit Replacing Cold War Gear
The F-35 has become NATO’s barometer of modernization. Six European nations committed to it in 2017. Today, eleven have placed orders—Belgium, Germany, Romania, Greece, and others. Stockpiles of ammunition, air defense systems (e.g., Patriot, IRIS-T), and drones have also expanded, fueled by EU industrial funds such as the newly launched €150 billion SAFE program (Reuters, May 2025).From Rotational Presence to Permanent Forward Posture
During Trump’s presidency, US troop numbers dropped to around 75,000, and a withdrawal from Germany was announced (though mostly suspended). After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, numbers surged past 100,000, where they remain. But the more significant shift is within Europe: Germany is building a permanent armored brigade in Lithuania. Estonia, Latvia, and Poland have also begun hosting larger, more permanent formations of European forces (NATO, AP News).A Larger Northern Alliance
Since 2017, NATO has added Montenegro, North Macedonia, Finland, and Sweden. This growth has extended NATO’s border with Russia by 1,300 kilometers and tightened its grip on the Arctic and Baltic regions—areas once considered NATO’s blind spots. Sweden brings a navy capable of undersea warfare; Finland contributes one of Europe’s largest artillery forces (NATO; Defense News).
TIMELINE OF TRANSFORMATION
2017–2025: From Posturing to Posture
2017: Trump called out allies for underfunding defense at the Brussels summit; Montenegro joined NATO
2018: Belgium orders 34 F-35 jets, starting the European upgrade wave
2020: Trump announces (but doesn’t fully execute) troop cuts in Germany; North Macedonia joins NATO
2022: Russia invades Ukraine; NATO troop levels surge; Greece and Germany confirm F-35 orders
2023: Finland joins NATO, adding 1,300 km of land frontier with Russia
2024: Sweden joins, completing Nordic alignment; NATO budgets hit Cold War-era highs
2025: Germany announces full armored brigade in Lithuania; EU launches €150B SAFE defense fund
Sources: NATO, Reuters, AP News, Defense News, BBC
HOW WE GOT HERE
The current transformation wasn’t inevitable—it was triggered.
Trump’s Unpredictability
When President Trump demanded that NATO allies “pay their share” in 2017, many saw it as a threat. But politically, it gave European leaders the cover they needed to increase military budgets without backlash from pacifist-leaning voters.Russia’s Invasion Made It Real
Everything changed in February 2022. Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine triggered a security panic across Europe. Political rhetoric turned into action. Germany launched a €100 billion special fund. Eastern states demanded permanent deployments. The US sent troops. NATO entered a new phase of credible defense.Europe’s Industrial Awakening
Until recently, NATO’s plans often lacked the hardware to back them up. That is changing. The EU’s €150 billion SAFE fund, launched in 2025, is designed to rebuild Europe’s defense-industrial base, securing long-lead items like missile systems, drones, and munitions through domestic production.
THE CULTURAL PERSPECTIVE
NATO’s transformation reflects a cultural realignment—from protectee to partner.
For decades, NATO embodied high power distance: the US dominated, while Europe deferred. Strategic decisions flowed one way. The cultural model was asymmetric collectivism—shared defense, but unequal roles.
Now we see a pivot to balanced collectivism and lower power distance.
European nations are contributing more financially, modernizing on their terms, and placing boots on the ground outside their borders. This shift isn’t just institutional, it reflects a deeper cultural awakening: security requires autonomy, not dependency.
WHY IT MATTERS
NATO’s transformation isn’t just about defense—it’s about power redistribution and foiling Putin’s plans.
For 75 years, the alliance was sustained by a silent assumption: the US leads, Europe follows. That model is over. Europe is now spending more, modernizing faster, and deploying further than at any point since the Cold War. The result is a more capable alliance that is less dependent on the US and thus more united as a European force.
But this is what everyone misses:
Putin is not hiding that his goal is a New Russian Empire. Europe is his second target after a failed attempt to unite the Central Asian states. But he can’t take Europe if it is united. He helped install Trump into the US Presidency, specifically to divide Europe.
Trump attempted this on two fronts, supporting far-right candidates and degrading NATO by pulling funding and troops. But true to Trump’s record, he failed. Far-right candidates have failed in several countries and have made only inroads in others.
Trump’s threats and the US drawdown, along with Putin’s invasion, completely backfired for him and Putin. NATO members increased cooperation, spending, and resolve to defend Europe.
Europe became more united, exactly the opposite of what Putin asked Trump to accomplish.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Germany’s brigade in Lithuania is only the beginning. With rising pressure to hit 3–5% defense spending, expect more permanent European deployments in Eastern states like Estonia, Latvia, and Poland.
The EU’s SAFE fund will likely expand, anchoring Europe’s defense procurement in Brussels, not Washington. This could lead to future friction over US weapons contracts vs. European industrial independence.
Watch for:
France is pushing a new pan-European command framework
Eastern NATO allies are demanding air defenses and missile shields, not just troops
US pressure shifting from spending levels to interoperability and control
What we’re seeing is the early stage of a European pillar inside NATO—parallel to, not subordinate to, US leadership. The alliance may soon become not just larger, but culturally two-headed.