The Future Brief – America’s Pendulum Politics: Why the Next Swing Could Be the Biggest in Mondern Times
Historical Cycles, Cultural Shifts, and What AOC Represents
America has always been two nations. Two clearly defined camps: progressive and conservative, and American politics has historically swung like a pendulum between them.
Conservatives promote business, deregulation, and “traditional values” but widen inequality, weaken protections for citizens, and increase the national debt. Frustration builds, and the country shifts toward progressives. Progressives push social reform, expand rights, invest in public welfare, and reduce the national debt, but reduce business confidence, cultural stability, and the comfort of those who fear rapid change.
This cycle repeats, and that means we can predict the most likely outcome after Trump.
THE NEWS
📰 Jon Meacham Revives Pendulum Theory in Trump-AOC Forecast
Presidential historian Jon Meacham suggested on The Daily Show that U.S. politics follows a pattern of symbolic opposites: Obama to Trump… and potentially to AOC?
📎 The Daily Show
📰 Trump’s Power Consolidation Sparks Backlash
The return of Trumpism, complete with executive purges and anti-progressive policies, has fueled mass protests and reinvigorated left-wing organizing across the country.
📎Newsweek
📰 AOC Popular With Voters
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains one of the most recognizable figures in politics. Many see her as a strong Democratic presidential contender.
📎 Newsweek
The American Swing
American politics is a pendulum. The concept is not new, but it’s gaining traction because it’s true: each progressive leap is followed by a conservative recoil. Each conservative rise is corrected by a new progressive wave.
Jefferson (agrarian democracy) → Adams (centralized elitism)
The people’s president gave way to a Federalist who strengthened state power and elite control.Lincoln (abolition) → Andrew Johnson (white supremacy and Native American genocide)
Emancipation was followed by Black Codes, pardons for Confederates, and the Trail of Tears.Teddy Roosevelt (trust-busting reform) → Taft (corporate appeasement)
A progressive crusader was replaced by a conservative who rolled back regulation.FDR (New Deal) → Eisenhower (moderate retreat)
Economic transformation met its plateau in military caution and fiscal restraint.LBJ (Civil Rights, Great Society) → Nixon (Southern Strategy of racism)
Racial justice was answered with coded white backlash and authoritarian policing.Carter (human rights diplomacy) → Reagan (nationalism and support of dictatorships)
Moral restraint gave way to corporate power, military buildup, and the support of brutal dictators if they aligned with American interests.Clinton (centrist globalization) → Bush (neoconservative unilateralism)
Economic integration was replaced with moral crusades and military intervention.Obama (multiracial progressivism) → Trump (nationalist racism)
Hope and inclusion triggered a backlash of hate, exclusion, and racism.
And now the stage is set for the next swing to someone like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
“The longer Trump governs the way he’s governing, the more likely he’s making the presidency of AOC”, Jon Meacham
HOW WE GOT HERE
The Pendulum is a Cultural Feedback Loop
Every leader produces a reaction, and that reaction often overcorrects; the pendulum seldom returns to the center. Trump is a direct backlash to Obama’s globalist, inclusive vision. A “black” President was too much for most Americans, and the pendulum overreacted. Trump represents the most conservative possible reaction - dictatorship. It stands to reason that the next swing will be wildly in the opposite direction.
THE CULTURAL PERSPECTIVE
Why America Swings So Hard
The Trump era embodies assertive achievement, short-term gratification, and power concentration. AOC would represent a shift to unity and cooperation, long-term goals, and grassroots inclusion.
This swing moves from Conservation + Self-Enhancement (preserve the past, pursue personal power) to Openness to Change + Self-Transcendence (embrace the new, serve the collective).
It’s a cultural reset, again.
HORNBY’S ARCHETYPES
Trump and AOC are Archetypes in Conflict
Donald Trump
The Power Seeker (North), Trump is pathologically “North.” His sole focus is to gain power over others. He is always right, and any disagreement is met with violent retaliation. There is no room for empathy, caring, or consideration of others. Everything is a zero-sum game, and Trump wants to ensure no one else has any part of the pie.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
A healthier mix of several archetypes. The Creative Soul (Yellow), expressive, visionary, long-term thinker. The Intuitive Caregiver (Green), empathetic, relational, community-centered. The Bridge Builder (Middle), focused on uniting class, race, and generation divides.
Trump's appeal is force. AOC’s is hope.
One rules through fear. The other builds through connection.
One collapses systems. The other reimagines them.
This is why they’re not just political foils; they are psychological opposites. The pendulum doesn’t just swing between platforms. It swings between archetypes of leadership that fulfill deep national needs.
WHY IT MATTERS - WHAT’S NEXT
The swing between Trump and AOC is about cultural exhaustion.
Each swing is a reaction to the previous regime’s failings, real or perceived. But this time, the backlash is existential. Trump’s style has scorched the cultural ground. What follows can’t just be moderate reform. The pendulum has swung too far for that. It has to be someone as far left as Trump is far right, as opposite to Trump as possible.
AOC fits that bill:
She’s a millennial born in 1989; he’s a baby boomer born in 1946.
She’s a woman; he’s a man.
She’s Puerto Rican-American; he’s white Anglo-American.
She’s a democratic socialist; he’s a right-wing nationalist.
She champions wealth redistribution and the Green New Deal; he pushes tax cuts for the wealthy and slashed regulations.
She communicates with empathy, policy depth, and fluency in social media; he dominates headlines with combative, emotionally charged tweets.
She rose from grassroots activism; he governs through top-down command.
She is the mirror opposite. And that’s exactly why she might be the next US President.
The problem is that wild swings can break the pendulum.
Very interesting, Way. I'm wondering if you think the "center" of the pendulum swing ever shifts? It feel like it has, maybe, though may be my cultural bias.