On 14 August, Trump said: “After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.”1 A White House official told the Wall Street Journal that he was joking. On 17 August he said, “I like the idea of declaring it a territory.”2
He does not understand the military situation, his allies, his own country’s law, or international law.
The U.S. does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, 130 to 140 vessels passed through the strait each day. On 12 August, eight passed. On 16 August, three. The following day, none.3 Of the eight on 12 August, seven used the Iranian-controlled route.4 Mines remain in and around the shipping lanes.5 Iran destroyed American port infrastructure and logistics hubs in the Gulf, so warships now refuel at sea. Robert Hein of Military Sealift Command said in April, “Iran has effectively shut down that gas station.”6 Dennis Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies: “The United States does not control the Strait of Hormuz.”7
The shipping lanes belong to Oman. The strait is 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest. Iran claims 12 miles of territorial sea, and Oman claims 12. There is no international water in it.8 The shipping lanes sit entirely on the Omani side of the 1974 boundary, a fact confirmed by the US State Department’s own study.9 Oman’s position, stated with Iran on 23 June, is that arrangements must respect “the sovereignty and sovereign rights of the two Coastal States.”10 Two states. Not three. Trump has threatened to bomb Oman twice, most recently on 17 August.11 The corridor his own navy uses runs through Omani water.12
American law does not let him. Every territorial acquisition in US history went through Congress. Louisiana and Alaska came by treaty. Texas in 1845 and Hawaii in 1898 came by joint resolution, used to avoid the two-thirds vote a treaty needs. No president has ever taken territory alone, against another government’s will.13 The closest American example is the Panama Canal Zone, and it proves the opposite. The 1903 treaty gave Washington the powers it would hold “if it were the sovereign,” which is not sovereignty. Panama agreed to it. The arrangement terminated in 1999.14
Owning it would give him nothing. Under the Law of the Sea, the state that owns an international strait cannot suspend passage through it, cannot charge for it, and cannot bar any country’s ships.15 Washington never ratified that treaty but has insisted since 1983 that those rules bind every state anyway. That argument is what lets American submarines pass through every strait on earth.16 Trump’s own Secretary of State said it in June: “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law.”17 Trump tested this on 13 July, declaring the United States “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT” and demanding 20 percent of cargo value. He replaced it about 25 hours later with pledges of Gulf investment in the United States, after Gulf leaders called him.18
Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, answered on 15 August: “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet, nor by aircraft carrier, nor by issuing an order, nor by an election speech.”19
Trump is losing the Iran war. American forces are winning many engagements but losing the war.1 That should sound familiar to Americans. The United States won many battles in Vietnam and lost the war. Tactics decide engagements. Strategy decides winners. Iran is playing a long-term winning strategy and it is working.2 Trump’s options for a win are almost nonexistent.
Trump can:
Escalate the air war, but CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper told the White House in late July that designated targets were mostly exhausted.3
Keep the blockade, but despite its economic impact, Iranian oil revenue fell from about $5.13 billion in March to $837 million in May,4 and the Statistical Center of Iran measured year-on-year inflation at 88.6 percent,5 Iran still refuses direct talks and still demands the blockade be lifted.6
Add sanctions, but Iran is already under nearly 2,000 imposed sanctions,7 and Beijing issued its first blocking order on May 2, telling Chinese firms not to comply with new U.S. sanctions.8
Invade, but an occupation would need as many as 1.6 million troops,9 more than the entire U.S. active-duty military.10 Additionally, much of Iran is mountainous, and Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait have refused to let the US use their territory for offensive operations.11
Seize Kharg Island, but something happened. The Pentagon prepared plans in March for weeks of ground operations,12 but Trump did not approve them, and the Marine unit moved into position and returned to Japan on July 22.13 Something is taking this option off the table.
Clear the mines, but the Navy decommissioned its four Bahrain minesweepers in September 2025.14 A classified briefing told the House Armed Services Committee that clearing could take six months.15
Escort tankers, but escorts protect ships from missiles and small boats. They do not remove mines.16
Let allies clear the mines, while the UK and France already lead a multinational mine-clearing mission,17 and European governments have resisted turning it into an American enforcement operation.18
Wait Iran out, but Trump needs a solution by November; maybe he can wait as long as the 2028 election. Iran can wait decades.
Ask China to pressure Iran, but Trump requested this publicly in March,19 and China made the ask.20 It resulted in no change.21 China understands how much Trump’s war is weakening America.
Accept a transit fee, but that is capitulating to Iran and a benefit only for Iran. Trump has refused to pay.22
Take the deal he already signed on June 17, but releasing frozen Iranian assets, committing to at least $300 billion in reconstruction, issuing waivers for Iranian petroleum products and the associated banking, insurance, and shipping services, and permanently ending military operations, including in Lebanon, benefits Iran. Terms for the U.S. are essentially what was in place before the war.23 This is not so far removed from a surrender.
The list splits in two. The military options need forces, allies, or time the United States does not have. The diplomatic options require Washington to accept Iranian authority over the strait or pay for passage. Trump has ruled out both.24. What options are left?
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Notes
Al Jazeera, “Trump says he will declare Strait of Hormuz a US ‘territory’ amid Iran war,” 14 August 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/14/trump-says-he-will-declare-strait-of-hormuz-a-us-territory ; Breitbart, “Trump: I’ll Declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. Territory After We Finish Defeating Iran,” 14 August 2026. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/08/14/trump-declare-strait-hormuz-u-s-territory-finish-defeating-iran/
Middle East Monitor, “Trump was ‘joking’ about declaring Strait of Hormuz US territory,” 15 August 2026. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260815-trump-was-joking-about-declaring-strait-of-hormuz-us-territory-us-media/ ; WCTI, “Trump: ‘I like the idea of declaring’ Strait of Hormuz a US territory,” 17 August 2026. https://wcti12.com/news/nation-world/trump-i-like-the-idea-of-declaring-strait-of-hormuz-us-territory-war
Arab News, 12 August 2026. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2654331/amp ; CBS News, “US-Iran war live updates,” 17 August 2026. https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/us-iran-war-deal-expired-strait-of-hormuz/
Al Jazeera, “As Strait of Hormuz transit drops, Trump again says US has control,” 12 August 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/12/as-strait-of-hormuz-transit-drops-trump-again-says-us-has-control ; Maritime Executive, “Iran Publishes Redrawn Traffic Scheme for Strait of Hormuz,” 8 April 2026. https://maritime-executive.com/article/iran-publishes-redrawn-traffic-scheme-for-strait-of-hormuz
gCaptain, “Strait of Hormuz Mines and Dual Transit Regime Complicate Return to Normal,” 27 June 2026. https://gcaptain.com/strait-of-hormuz-mines-and-dual-transit-regime-complicate-return-to-normal/
The War Zone, “Iranian Attacks Change Way Navy Refuels Its Ships In Middle East,” 21 April 2026. https://www.twz.com/sea/iranian-attacks-change-way-navy-refuels-its-ships-in-middle-east
Al Jazeera, “As Strait of Hormuz transit drops, Trump again says US has control,” 12 August 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/12/as-strait-of-hormuz-transit-drops-trump-again-says-us-has-control
Chatham House, “The Strait of Hormuz, shipping and the law,” 13 April 2026. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/04/strait-hormuz-shipping-and-law
US Department of State, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Limits in the Seas No. 94, “Continental Shelf Boundary: Iran-Oman.” https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/58838.pdf ; Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Reaching Viable Management Arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz,” 5 August 2026. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/reaching-viable-management-arrangements-strait-hormuz
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sultanate of Oman, Oman-Iran joint statement, 23 June 2026. https://www.fm.gov.om/en/48943/
Al Jazeera, “Why has Trump threatened to bomb Oman amid Iran war escalation?,” 28 May 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/28/why-has-trump-threatened-to-bomb-oman-amid-iran-war-escalation ; NBC News, “Trump threatens to bomb Oman,” 17 August 2026. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-bomb-oman-iran-strait-hormuz-rcna592971
gCaptain, “Strait of Hormuz Mines and Dual Transit Regime Complicate Return to Normal,” 27 June 2026. https://gcaptain.com/strait-of-hormuz-mines-and-dual-transit-regime-complicate-return-to-normal/
Congressional Research Service, “U.S. Territorial Expansion: The Constitutional Roles of Congress and the President,” IF13163, 29 January 2026. https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/IF13163.html ; Office of Legal Counsel, US Department of Justice, “Legal Issues Raised by Proposed Presidential Proclamation to Extend the Territorial Sea,” 12 Op. O.L.C. 238 (1988). https://www.justice.gov/file/151031/dl
Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty, 18 November 1903, Article III. https://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/slatta/hi216/documents/pancantreaty.htm ; US Department of State, Office of the Historian, “The Panama Canal and the Torrijos-Carter Treaties.” https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/panama-canal
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, Part III, Articles 38, 42 and 44. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part3.htm
Ronald Reagan, “Statement on United States Oceans Policy,” 10 March 1983. https://www.un.org/Depts/los/LEGISLATIONANDTREATIES/PDFFILES/USA_1983_Statement.pdf
Al Jazeera, “’Piracy’: Will Trump’s 20 percent Hormuz toll find takers?,” 14 July 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/14/piracy-will-trumps-20-percent-hormuz-toll-find-takers
NOTUS, “Trump Says U.S. Should Collect Fee as ‘GUARDIAN’ of the Strait of Hormuz,” 13 July 2026. https://www.notus.org/trump-white-house/trump-fee-guardian-strait-of-hormuz ; PBS NewsHour, “Trump backs away from plans to charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz,” 14 July 2026. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump-backs-away-from-plans-to-charge-fees-in-the-strait-of-hormuz
Mediaite, “Iran Scoffs at Trump’s Tough Talk: Strait of Hormuz ‘Cannot Be Seized by Tweet’,” 15 August 2026. https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/iran-scoffs-at-trumps-tough-talk-strait-of-hormuz-cannot-be-seized-by-tweet/
Donald Trump is actively detonating America's strategic alliances at the exact moment Vladimir Putin is expanding his warpath across Europe.
While Washington isolates the United States by slapping punitive 50% tariffs on $28 billion of Canadian goods, threatening trade cutoffs with European allies, and treating NATO like a protection racket, Moscow is exploiting the void with devastating efficiency:
• The Naval Front: A +30% surge in Russian naval activity in UK waters, requiring 116 Royal Navy intercept missions to track warships and shadow-fleet tankers.
• The Subsea Front: 7 critical Baltic telecom and energy cables severed in a 3-month window via commercial proxy anchor-dragging.
• The Airspace Front: Direct Shahed drone breaches across Romania and the Baltics, forcing NATO fighter jets into round-the-clock kinetic scrambles.
• The Domestic Drain: The U.S. is burning 6.1M barrels of SPR per week with only ~7 weeks of runway left, while working-class volunteer sailors endure 208 continuous days at sea.
When America treats its closest allies as economic adversaries, it doesn't project strength—it hands Putin an open invitation to execute a cascading gray-zone invasion of the West.
Read the complete logistical deep dive, real-time timeline, and our Subscriber Prediction Market Matrix:
https://triggledger.substack.com/p/fractured-shield-how-trumps-disastrous?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=8gc1qf