Is The Strait of Hormuz Going To Reopen?
Culture and History and Archetypes
“Everything” is more expensive since Trump’s war with Iran. This is because “everything” runs on oil, from cars to food production, and with the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices are much higher. This leaves us with the question, when will the Strait fully open?
First, what does “fully open” mean? That has a surprisingly specific answer: 60 or more ships as counted by IMF PortWatch transiting the Strait of Hormuz over a 7 day moving average. I’ll tell you now: Iran will not fully open the Strait because Iran does not need to, and Trump does. And, this is what most people are missing, even if the Strait fully opens, oil prices will remain high. Here’s what’s happening.
The Historical Pattern
March 2026 is the first time in history that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to that, Iran used selective harassment to reduce the number of ships transiting the Strait. During the Tanker War from 1984 to 1988, Iran attacked more than 200 commercial vessels in the Gulf. Insurance rates spiked, which increased oil prices, but traffic continued. In 2011 and 2012, facing new sanctions, Iran ran naval exercises and threatened closure through state media. The threat of closure caused the oil price to increase. In 2019, Iran placed limpet mines on tankers in the Gulf of Oman and seized the UK-flagged Stena Impero, holding it for two months. In 2023 and 2024, Iran seized two ships on legal pretexts. In June 2025, after American and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, the Iranian parliament voted symbolically to close the Strait, but it did not close it. Each action caused oil prices to increase.
More than 50% of Iran’s economy relies on oil exports. A full closure of the Strait harms Iran. Therefore, Iran has selectively harassed shipping to increase oil prices, which is helpful to Iran and harmful to most other nations.
The Cultural Perspective
Trompenaars’ synchronic time dimension describes a split in how different cultures make decisions. Iran, like much of the Middle East and Asia, treats time as a long arc. Decisions are made with decades in mind. Waiting is a strategy. The United States runs on sequential time, where visible progress and news cycles drive decisions.
