Future Brief: The Old World Ran on Coal and Oil. The Future Runs on Wind and Sunlight.
Fossil fuels built the old world. Clean energy will build the new one.
Unless you are in the fossil fuels industry, you’d probably be happy to get rid of fossil fuels. Breathable, clean air every day, an end to oil spills and tar balls on the beaches. quiet roadways, the end of mountain top removal, and black lung disease. What’s not to miss?
The 20th century ran on oil, coal, and gas. It killed millions, but that was a small price to pay for the power it gave those who controlled the resources.
It’s finally coming to an end. Wind, solar, hydrogen, and advanced batteries are shifting power away from petrostates and toward nations that can produce, store, and transmit clean energy at scale.
This is more than an environmental transition; it’s a geopolitical reordering.
What’s Happening
Petrostates and the US Lose Leverage
For decades, oil-rich nations shaped global politics through energy dependence. The US controlled this through the petrodollar, requiring all oil trading to be done in US dollars. Now, falling renewable costs, energy storage breakthroughs, and the industry no longer being able to hide the devastating effects of its product are eroding that influence. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia are diversifying to prepare, but their political power is tied to a shrinking resource base.
China Builds the Energy Supply Chain
China produces more than 80% of the world’s solar panels, dominates global battery manufacturing, and leads in wind turbine exports. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, it’s embedding its clean energy technology into infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, locking in long-term markets and influence.
EU Sets the Rules
The European Union is positioning itself as the regulator of the green transition. Through its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, it’s forcing exporters to meet EU climate standards to access the world’s largest single market. This gives the EU outsized influence over global production methods, whether partners like it or not.
Global South Becomes the Energy Frontier
From Namibia’s green hydrogen potential to Chile’s lithium reserves, the Global South holds many of the resources needed for clean tech. Countries are learning from the mistakes of the fossil fuel era, demanding better terms, local manufacturing, and environmental safeguards in exchange for resource access.
Why It Matters
Energy has always determined global power.
Coal fueled European empires. Oil made the Middle East a geopolitical center. Today, the nations that control the clean energy supply chain, and the rules that govern it, will lead the 21st century.
This time, the advantage doesn’t belong to a single region. China’s manufacturing scale, the EU’s regulatory power, and the Global South’s resource wealth are interdependent. No bloc can dominate without the others. That interdependence makes conflict less profitable and cooperation more likely if nations play it strategically.
Countries that adapt early will not only secure energy independence but also export power in the form of technology, investment, and regulation. Those who delay will find themselves dependent again, this time on batteries, solar cells, and hydrogen imports instead of oil and gas.
What’s the Future?
Petrostates Recast as Green Energy Powers
Some oil and gas producers will pivot successfully, using wealth from hydrocarbons to fund clean energy megaprojects. The UAE’s Masdar and Saudi Arabia’s NEOM city are early examples. Others will resist change, losing relevance and revenue as demand for fossil fuels declines.
China as the Clean Tech Manufacturer
China will retain its lead in solar, wind, and batteries, but will face increasing competition from India, the US, and Southeast Asia. The challenge is getting the fuel, metals, and other materials it needs from countries that won’t suddenly stop selling during a political fight, so it doesn’t get trapped by the same trade threats it once used on others.
The EU as Global Green Regulator
Europe will deepen its role as climate rule-setter. Its regulations will become global standards simply because companies won’t want to make separate products for EU and non-EU markets. Nations that meet EU climate criteria will gain access to the EU market and financing.
The Global South as the Deciding Voice
Resource-rich nations in Africa, Latin America, and Asia will have unprecedented leverage. By forming regional alliances and negotiating as blocs, they can secure long-term value instead of exporting raw materials cheaply. The success of these negotiations will determine whether the green transition is equitable or just another cycle of exploitation under a new name.
Clean energy is more than a climate solution; it will be the foundation of the new global order. It will decide who leads the world in the future. Countries that see this now will control the world’s energy, economy, politics, and security.
Join us for more cultural perspective on TikTok and YouTube
Tiktok failed to load.Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
