Core Brief: Trump Tried to Break Europe—He Made It Stronger Than Ever
Trump’s blundering, miscalculations, and incompetence are creating a new European superpower
Trump wanted to show he was in charge.
He threatened to pull out of NATO. He delayed Ukraine aid. He backed Putin.
He assumed Europe would fold. Instead, it united.
For the first time in modern history, Europe is acting like a great power on its own terms.
And the United States is no longer necessary.
From the start of his first term, Donald Trump treated NATO like a business deal gone bad. He threatened to withdraw, ridiculed European leaders, and demanded that allies “pay up.” He delayed defense funding. And when he returned to office in 2025, he took it further: pausing US aid, blocking joint commitments, and supporting Vladimir Putin.
Trump assumed Europe would submit
Instead, the European Union united, not against the US but for itself.
In early 2025, the EU finalized a €150 billion joint defense fund.
Brussels initiated plans for pan-European arms production to reduce reliance on US weapons.
Member states committed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP.
Switzerland, traditionally neutral, announced exploratory talks about participating in the defense structure.
And when the US held up Ukrainian aid, the EU implemented an independent financial mechanism to continue funding Kyiv, without Washington.
Europe is preparing to defend itself because Trump has made it clear the US is no longer a reliable or trustworthy partner.
Why It Matters
European Defense
Europe’s shift toward defense independence marks one of the most significant geopolitical realignments since the end of the Cold War. For 80 years, the United States served as Europe’s primary military guarantor, underwriting NATO and using its power to influence European foreign policy. Trump has ended that arrangement.
The future of NATO now hinges on Europe, not the United States. While the alliance itself remains intact, Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw the US and signaled that US support is conditional, and possibly temporary. As the US commitment continues to erode, European states increasingly rely on EU-led military coordination as their primary security mechanism.
European Independence
As Europe redefines itself as a greater global power, US influence over global policy will weaken. An independent Europe will take independent positions on China, sanctions, trade regulation, and climate. The EU has already demonstrated this with its independent digital policy regime, its carbon border tax, and its resistance to US extraterritorial sanctions. Without dependency, there is no leverage, and Europe will be free from US domination.
European Leadership
Europe’s rise and America’s decline will redefine global economic leadership. As Europe continues to create parallel financial and diplomatic systems, the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will erode. The EU’s ability to fund Ukraine without US involvement is an early example of what post-American multilateralism looks like.
Europe’s transformation is not just regional; it is the beginning of a new global power structure.
The Cultural Perspective
📍 United States
Trump’s approach is a combination of High Power Distance and Particularism: He expects European leaders to obey him unquestionably, even at their own peril, for the sole reason that he is the US president. Trump requires one-way loyalty in which lesser powers are expendable.
Trump sets the rules, but they do not apply to him. Outcomes depend on how much Trump likes or dislikes the other leader. Alliances are not partnerships; they are one-sided leverage points.
📍 European Union
The EU is structurally and culturally Universalist and Collectivist. It was built on the assumption that rules, not personalities, govern cooperation. Trump undermines that foundation, but instead of collapsing, the EU strengthens. This is an outcome of its collectivist nature: joint funding, shared planning, and a pivot from dependency to self-determination.
Yet, tensions remain. Spain negotiated an opt-out from the 5% defense pledge. Hungary’s dictator, Orbán, continues to block common foreign policy decisions. Far-right populist parties are rising in several countries. The issue is that Europe is not a single culture, and while overall universalist, many countries are particularist and expect exceptions.
The EU has a shared vision, but not a shared path.
What’s Next?
In the coming decade, the European Union is likely to emerge as a true global power in defense, economics, diplomacy, and leadership.
Defense
The EU will create its own command structure. It will still coordinate with NATO, but it won’t depend on it. France and Germany will lead this push through a new Strategic Autonomy Doctrine, focusing on shared weapons production and joint procurement.
NATO may still exist, but US leadership within it will fade as Europe takes control of its own defense.
At the same time, we can expect the EU will expand its security partnerships beyond Europe. We’re likely to see new defense agreements with countries like Japan, India, and key African nations.
Economic Power
As the US uses the dollar for sanctions and leverage, Europe will accelerate financial independence. The euro’s use as a reserve currency will continue to grow, supported by new payment systems designed to bypass SWIFT and US oversight.
This shift will weaken American control over global finance and further fragment the post-Bretton Woods monetary order.
Leadership
Europe will continue to lead in global rule-setting. Its regulatory reach will define standards in digital governance, privacy, antitrust, and AI. On climate, the EU’s carbon border tax will pressure trading partners to match EU policies or lose access to its market
Foreign Policy and Global Alignment
The EU will act with increasing independence on China, the Middle East, and Russia, sometimes aligning with the US, often not. New alliances will emerge, grounded in law, investment, and sustainability, not American military leadership.
This isn’t just Europe preparing for US withdrawal.
It may be Europe replacing US global leadership.