Core Brief: The New Map of Global Power
The world isn’t in chaos — it’s following a 500-year-old pattern.
For centuries, global power has been organized into three groups: core nations at the top, periphery nations at the bottom, and a volatile semi-periphery caught in between. The names of the players change, but the structure remains.
The Future Brief this week revealed how this system works. The Global Profile of Abiy Ahmed revealed what it looks like when a leader in the periphery attempts to ascend, drawing Ethiopia closer to the semi-periphery through BRICS membership.
Now we step back and ask the bigger question: how is the model shifting today?
We know which nations are moving to the top, the core nations, but who will fight for space in the middle, and who will be left at the bottom?
The Core: One Center Becomes Three
For nearly 80 years, there has been only one true core: the United States and its allies in Europe and Japan.
This Western core used institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and WTO to set the rules of global trade and finance. The US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, ensuring American dominance.
That era is ending.
The Western core is splitting into two, the US and the EU, and a third core is forming around BRICS, led by China, with India, Russia, Brazil, and now Saudi Arabia providing depth and reach.
The Semi-Periphery: The Pivot Point of the Global System.
This group is the engine of change: nations here have escaped the dependency of the periphery but lack the dominance of the core. They are industrializing, building military power, and developing political influence, but they remain vulnerable to being pulled downward by economic crises, internal conflict, or external pressure.
Historically, the semi-periphery serves two purposes:
Buffering the Core from Revolt:
When the periphery rises, through labor unrest, wars of independence, or migration, the semi-periphery absorbs the shock. Its industries and armies maintain stability for the system as a whole.Breeding Ground for Future Cores:
Every nation that has reached the top started here. Britain in the 1700s, the U.S. in the 1800s, and China in the late 20th century, all were once semi-periphery powers climbing upward.
This dual role makes the semi-periphery volatile. It is both ambitious and unstable, home to nations trying to rise, and those struggling not to fall back.
Climbers: Nations on the Rise
These countries are most likely to break through toward core status by 2035, fueled by geography, resources, and strategic diplomacy:
Mexico – Leveraging proximity to the U.S. through nearshoring while deepening BRICS trade links, and most importantly, creating an inclusive government for the first time.
Vietnam – Drawing industries that are leaving China and gradually modernizing governance, shifting from centralized control to market-driven policies.
Indonesia – Building its role in green energy supply chains while strengthening democratic institutions and anti-corruption reforms.
Turkey – Exploiting its location between Europe and Asia while centralizing power under Erdoğan, which boosts short-term stability but will likely fail in the long term.
Nigeria – Rising oil and tech sectors supported by efforts to reduce corruption and expand regional leadership.
Egypt – Using its strategic Suez position while tightening state control to maintain order amid rapid economic change.
If these climbers succeed, they won’t just grow stronger individually; they will reshape alliances, forcing the three cores to compete for their loyalty and market access.
Stagnation or Decline
Other semi-periphery nations are losing ground, trapped by corruption, weak institutions, or external shocks:
South Africa – Its infrastructure and political stability are eroding, threatening its BRICS role, but Cyril Ramaphosa, the President of South Africa, may be reversing the decline.
Argentina – Continues to be strangled by debt cycles and runaway inflation, while political polarization prevents meaningful reform.
Russia – Militarily strong, but sanctions and demographic decline threaten its long-term position, leaving it more dependent on China, and Putin’s authoritarian control narrows its options.
These countries matter because when semi-periphery nations collapse, the shockwaves are global. Wars, refugee flows, and supply chain breakdowns often start here, destabilizing both the core and the periphery.
The Periphery: Nations at the Bottom of the System
The periphery remains the foundation of the global economy. These nations supply raw materials, cheap labor, and markets for goods produced by the core and semi-periphery.
Most will stay locked in this role, but a few have a chance to rise.
Moving Up from the Periphery
A handful of countries are actively climbing, often with BRICS support:
Ethiopia – Abiy Ahmed’s strategy through BRICS membership could make it East Africa’s first manufacturing hub.
Kenya – Emerging as a tech and logistics center.
Chile – Green energy minerals like lithium give it global importance.
Philippines – Growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors could boost its position.
Locked in Place
Many nations remain trapped by weak governance, conflict, or overwhelming debt:
Central African Republic, Haiti, Afghanistan, Sudan, and others continue to face barriers to even partial development.
Parts of Southeast Asia (like Laos and Cambodia).
Fragile states in Sub-Saharan Africa with single-resource economies.
Resource-dependent nations in Central Asia are caught between Russia and China.
What This Means for the Next Decade
Over the next decade, the three rival cores, the US, EU, and BRICS, will harden into competing blocs, each with its own financial systems, trade routes, and rules for technology, energy, and security. The era of a single, US-led global order will be over.
The semi-periphery will become the decisive arena. Nations like Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, and Vietnam will rise if they can skillfully play the cores against one another, gaining investment and access to multiple markets. Those that miscalculate, such as South Africa or Argentina, risk sliding backward into stagnation or dependency.
The periphery will split in two. A handful of countries, like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Egypt, will climb by aligning with a core that offers infrastructure, financing, and trade opportunities. Most, however, will sink deeper into poverty and conflict, supplying raw materials to the cores without gaining political power. Entire regions, particularly parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and fragile states in Southeast Asia, may become locked out of the benefits of globalization entirely.
By 2035, the world will not be chaotic, but it will be divided, with clear centers of power, rising challengers, and a vast, powerless periphery feeding the system.
This shift will determine:
Where industries are built and where jobs disappear.
Which currencies hold value and which collapse.
Which nations direct the world, and which are left in poverty.
The New Global Power Map
The Prime Brief, available exclusively to paid subscribers, will take you inside the rise of three nations poised to reshape the world order: Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam. These climbers sit at the tipping point of the global system, where the decisions they make in the next decade will determine whether they ascend toward core status — or fall back into dependency.
We’ll explore the hidden forces driving their rise, the alliances they must navigate between the U.S., EU, and BRICS, and the risks that could derail their ascent. Most importantly, we’ll show why the choices made in Mexico City, Jakarta, and Hanoi will directly affect your economy, your job, and your future.
Join us for more cultural perspective on TikTok and YouTube
Tiktok failed to load.Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
