China Overtakes US GDP by 2030?

The Cultural Prediction: The Market Is Pricing the Present, Not the Trend

The prediction market gives China about a 20 percent chance of passing the United States in total economic size by 2030. That number is too low. Not because China will surpass U.S. GDP by 2030; it almost certainly will not. The market is too low because it prices where the two economies are today and ignores where they are going. The direction is clear: China is on a steady rise; the United States is on a steady decline.